The Monaco Economic Board (MEB), Banque Populaire Méditerranée and Gramaglia Insurance, held a new conference entitled “Country Risk: Analysis and Business Opportunities” recently at the Salon Bellevue in the Café de Paris. For the fourth year in a row in the Principality, Julian Marcilly, chief economist for Coface, outlined the main global economic trends evoked at the Country Risk Symposium in front of 1,200 experts.
More than 100 economic players were present to take in Coface forecasts, one of the world leaders in credit insurance. For companies, members of the MEB, especially those who are internationally oriented, this meeting was a great opportunity to guide their investment strategy and their future actions. Especially since Coface now completes its evaluation with a rating of 13 business sectors in 24 countries, representing nearly 85% of global GDP.
Julien Marcilly began by taking stock of 2017, a year that had some good economic surprises despite the protectionist threat that seemed to prevail. The notable performances of Europe, the United States and some emerging countries, supported by the recovery in commodity prices, have outperformed the forecasts.
For 2018, Coface predicts a confirmation of global economic growth that could reach a peak. But this favorable trend should not obscure the risks; Julien Marcilly pointed out three main ones: a risk of overheating which could lead to equipment shortages and recruitment difficulties, mainly in developed countries; a banking risk still present in China, and finally and always, a political risk with a busy year in elections, especially in Latin America. The in-depth verdicts were then unveiled in the Coface Country Risk Ratings card. After giving an overview, Julien Marcilly answered questions from those in attendance, particularly questions from Monegasque companies about their areas of activity. The participants were then able to walk away with the new Coface Country and Sectorial Risks Guide, a valuable tool that will allow them to deepen their knowledge.
